The NFL regular season has come to a close on an exciting “win and your in” game last night between the Ravens and Steelers. The Steelers claimed the last spot in the AFC playoff picture finalizing the seeding and matchups for Wild Card weekend. From a Patriots fan perspective, we have returned to normalcy atop the AFC East with an impressive 14-3 record. Drake Maye in his second year put together an MVP caliber season, Mike Vrabel is a favorite to win Coach of the Year, and the entire organization appears back to its winning DNA we were accustomed to for so many years. Truth is, I had very little expectations for this Patriots season. I expected an improved record based on an improved roster, coaching staff and a QB making a second year jump, but I did not anticipate this. I don’t think any Patriots fan did. It feels a little like playing with the house’s money, and I love it. With that, let’s take a look ahead and preview the Sunday Night matchup at home against the Chargers.

Offense:

The Patriots offense is coming off of two dominant weeks against division opponents the Jets and Dolphins. Granted both are far from being playoff caliber teams, but you’d have to think a late confidence boost the this offense will be welcomed ahead of the opening playoff weekend. Maye had 5 touchdowns and just 2 incompletions against the Jets, followed by another touchdown on just 4 incompletions against the Dolphins in a game that was controlled mainly by an efficient run game. I fully expect Drake Maye to be as efficient and effective against the Chargers as he has been all year long. He poise in the pocket, ability to keep his eyes down field, make plays off schedule, and throw accurately downfield will have to be on full display. An encouraging sign was how effective the run game was against the Dolphins. Rhamondre Stevenson cashed in for 5 touchdowns (3 rushing, 2 receiving) in the last two games, while TreVeyon Henderson added a pair of his own on Sunday against the Dolphins. If the run game can establish itself early against the Chargers and remain efficient on early downs, it will open up the full playbook for Josh McDaniels and this offensive unit. The O-Line welcomed the return of rookie LT Will Campbell and has improved weekly in pass protection and run blocking since the beginning of the season. The Chargers defense is no slouch and will be a far greater adversary than Patriots opponents of recent weeks. The Chargers rank 5th in yards allowed per game at 285.2, 11th in sacks with 45 on the year, and 8th in takeaways (19 INT, 4 FUM). Tuli Tuipulotu an emerging standout LB with 13 sacks this season, Khalil Mack a savy and strong veteran LB who can still break a game, and Derwin James, a physical, big play ball hawk safety will lead this Chargers defense in Foxborough against Drake Maye’s offense.

Defense:

Justin Herbert is a real threat at QB for the Chargers especially when combined with a number of big play, reliable options in the passing game, and a rookie RB who has showed to be dangerous when healthy this season. Herbert finished 9th in passing yardage with 3,727, and T-7 in touchdowns with 26. Not statistically his best season, but he is a solid passer and playmaker, and has an ability to use his legs which will provide a tough test for the Pats defensive front to contain. Omarion Hampton has battled injury at RB for the Chargers this season, but is effective when healthy. The Chargers will look to ease pass the pressure on their O-Line pass protection by running the ball early and often. The Patriots are 7th against the run this season, and it will be important to get early down stops to set up a strong pass rush against a depleted Chargers O-line. Ladd McConkey leads this deep receiving core alongside, the ever reliable veteran Keenan Allen, deep threat Quentin Johnston, intriguing rookie Tre Harris and Oronde Gadsen who emerged as a favorable target for Herbert this season. I believe the Patriots matchup quite well in the passing game against the Chargers receivers especially considering how dominant Christian Gonzalez has been. I expect Gonzo to be in matchups against both McConkey and Johnston, while Carlton Davis will likely see a lot of Keenan Allen. The key priority for the Patriots defense is to force long passing situations in this game and bring pressure to Herbert effectively and consistently. The Chargers offensive line is the biggest weakness after they lost both starting tackles, Rashawn Slater in training camp before the season, and Joe Alt in November. The Chargers rank second to last in pass block grade, last in pass rush win rate, and have given up the fourth most sacks this season.

Special Teams:

As we saw last night in the Ravens-Steelers season finale, special teams is a very important part of playoff level games, and experience is an asset. Rookie Tyler Loop (Ravens) sliced the game winning kick well right of the uprights and cost Baltimore a trip to the postseason. Patriots rookie Andres Borregales has been quite steady in his first year with the team, but I hope to avoid placing the weight of victory among the young man’s shoulders if possible. Chargers kicker Cameron Dicker is amongst the league’s best, 3rd in field goals made and top 5 in percentage at almost 93%. Advantage Chargers. On the flip side the Patriots are far better at returning the ball on kickoffs, but especially on punt returns. Pro Bowl snub and Patriots punt returner Marcus Jones leads the NFL in average punt return yardage and has 2 return touchdowns on the year.

Overall:

The Patriots have the stronger offense by every identifiable category (points per game, yards per game, passing/rushing yards per game, and giveaways), and a comparable defense to the Chargers allowing fewer rush yards and points per game. The knock on the Patriots this season has been they haven’t played a strong enough schedule to be real contenders. While there is no arguing the Patriots strength of schedule was weak in comparison to the rest of the league this season, the Patriots were so efficient in winning games it provides more context to just their record. Like I said at the top, we never anticipated this type of season, and it is all gravy from here, but I can’t wait for the return of playoff football to Foxborough!