New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans, Sunday, 1/18 at 3pm

The Patriots are coming off their best defensive performance of the season, and will now take on a Houston Texans team whose defense plays like that every game. The Texans are arguably the best defense in the NFL this season and it has allowed them not only a playoff birth, but a first round win on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night.

Offense:

The Patriots offense is the strength of their team, and even though the performance was less than stellar on Sunday night, they still made plays when it counted, and were able to rely on the defense. While I still believe the Pats D will be very impactful, the offense must improve against this Texans defense. Drake Maye with now a playoff game under his belt will hopefully open the game with more confidence and consistency, the type of play we’ve grown accustomed to this season. Getting him quick, short and easy completions early on will hopefully restore confidence and help him manage what will be a challenging matchup. The running game will have to remain an option between both Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson. Both players have the ability to create big plays, something that will be needed to keep the Texans front at bay. I’m looking for Stefon Diggs to have a major impact. Yes, it will be a challenging matchup for the veteran wideout against either Derek Stingley or Kamari Lassiter, but Diggs will have something to prove against his former team. It is indisputable the Diggs carries a chip on his shoulder, and in a game like this he will need to rise to the occasion. Lastly, and likely most importantly, the Patriots O-line will need to provide greater protection for Maye in this one. The rookie tandem on the left side of the line struggled, at times, to handle the defensive front of the Chargers leading to 5 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. With Maye already handling the challenge that this Texans defense will present, especially in coverage. The extra half second that this O-line can provide could be the difference.

The Texans offense ranked in the lower half of the league in yards per game, but has been improving over the course of the season. Quarterback C.J. Stroud created large expectations for himself after his stellar rookie season, but struggled last year, and didn’t quite recapture his true magic this season. He is more than capable of moving the ball downfield especially with the help of 1,000+ yard receiver Nico Collins. Collins who left Monday night’s game with a head injury, would be in the marquee matchup of the night against Christian Gonzalez. Both players on the injury report for head injuries will be questionable leading up to likely being near game time decisions this week. This would be a great battle between two of the league’s best, so we’re hoping for fast and full recoveries from both players. The Texans running game will be provided largely from rookie Woody Marks, who averages just 3.6 yards per carry. Not a home run hitter type running back, but can establish reasonable gains on early downs to set up manageable work for Stroud in the passing game. Without Collins, the Texans’ receiving works gets spread between veteran TE Dalton Shultz, veteran WR Christian Kirk and young up-and-comers rookie Jayden Higgins and third-year wideout Xavier Hutchinson.

Defense:

Patriots defense will look to replicate their performance from Sunday’s game against the Chargers, especially up front. Comparatively the Chargers offense scared me more than this Texans’ offense in terms of weapons, especially if Nico Collins can’t recover in time for Sunday. The Chargers had the stronger quarterback, and a better all around receiving core comparatively than the Texans. Unlike the Chargers’ depleted offensive line that seemed to diminish as the season went on, the Texan’s O-line has been steadily improving from some early season troubles. They allow few sacks, but a lot of pressure ranking 22nd in pass block grade by PFF. If the Pats defense can stifle the run, a strength of theirs over this season, and get after C.J. Stroud in obvious passing situations, they should be successful. An important follow up performance from Milton Williams and the rest of the Pats D-line!

The Texans will far and away be the best defense Drake Maye has faced this season. This unit is riddled with defensive weapons. Danielle Hunter (15 sacks), and Will Anderson (12 sacks) will be the best two pass rushers the Pats have faced this season, a tough task for the rookies on the left side. The second level of Henry To’oTo’o and Azeez Al-Shaair will be a physical force looking to come up and make plays against Henderson and Stevenson in the run game, and the secondary which ranks 3rd in interceptions will cause some issues against Pats receivers. This defense is a threat to score as well, having scored two touchdowns against the Steelers in the Wild Card.

Special Teams:

Andres Borregales was stellar in his playoff debut, making all three field goals along with an extra point in the win over the Chargers. He will need to be equally as efficient in this game, as points will be at a premium between these two teams. — Marcus Jones at PR is always a threat and will need to be effective. In a defensive battle, which this game is predicted to be, yards will be hard to come by so field position will be incredibly important.

Ka’imi Fairbairn made a field goal and went 3 of 4 on extra points in the Texans’ Wild Card victory over the Steelers. Fairbairn led the league in field goals made with 44, and is top 10 in make percentage this season as well. He’s experienced, and has made many big time kicks over his career, would expect that to continue in this one. — Jaylin Noel is an effective returner on both punts and kickoffs and the Texans are slightly above league average in both kick and punt returns.

Overall:

Expect this to be a low scoring, physical, hard nosed football game led by both team’s defenses. Both teams are very well coached, and will provide an exciting game. The Patriots must win the turnover battle, something they lost without consequence agains the Chargers. That won’t be the case here. Maye and the offense must take care of the ball, and the defense will need to cause some confusion for Stroud to turn the ball over. Field position will be at a premium, winning turnovers and returns will drastically help. I expect Maye to be better, he was self critical of his playoff debut performance and if this season is any indication, he is a fast learner. After Stefon Diggs challenged the Foxborough faithful in a recent press scrum, I expect Gillette to be rocking on Sunday afternoon. All in all, this is a fun team to root for. The whole team seems to be having a lot of fun, and picks each other up which is a product of the culture set by Vrabel and his staff this season. Let’s Go!