Well it wasn’t pretty. In the rain, sleet, and snow the Patriots defense again puts on a dominant performance, causing 5 total turnovers (4 INTs, 1 FR) giving C.J. Stroud nightmares en route to a 28-16 win. It was clear from the first two passes thrown from Stroud that he was going to struggle in the conditions in Foxborough. Several of his early passes were inaccurate and as the first half progressed, the Patriots began to take full advantage. While the defense dominated, the Patriots offense struggled. An argument could be made that with competent quarterback play on behalf of the Texans the Patriots could’ve been steamrolled. But that wasn’t the case, and the offense weathered the storm figuratively and literally against the highly talked about Houston defense who showed their teeth early and often. Will Anderson had 3 sacks contributing to the team total of 5 against Drake Maye as the offensive line had their hands full on the perimeter of the line against Anderson and Danielle Hunter as we expected they might. After going 3 and out on the first drive the Patriots found the end zone on a 4th down play across the middle as Maye hit Pop Douglas in stride. Houston took the lead early in the 2nd quarter as the Patriots struggled to gain traction offensively, but on the first throw from Stroud of the 2nd drive of quarter 2, Marcus Jones picked it off and took it back 26 yards to the house to put the Patriots out in front 14-10. This was a major turning point in the game as Houston came off a scoring drive took the lead and Pats offense truly had nothing working. The Jones interception spiraled Stroud who followed up with yet another pick this time to Craig Woodson. Nothing came from the turnover, but a couple drives later the Pats offense clicked for 5 plays, 56 yards ending in an 7 yard quick slant left to Stefon Diggs getting the Patriots up two scores. Stroud threw his final pick of the first half on an incredible catch/interception from Carlton Davis III on the sideline, his second of the game.

The second half started more positively for Houston getting a field goal on the opening drive, and forcing a Drake Maye fumble, but again the Patriots defense stole back the momentum with a Christian Gonzalez forced fumble on Woody Marks. The offense was unable to capitalize on many of the turnovers the defense provided and the Texans were able to get back to within 5 following a field goal late in the 3rd quarter. But to open the 4th quarter and truly put the game out of reach Drake Maye threw a 32 yard downfield pass to the right sideline to find Kayshon Boutte’s right hand as he pulled it in with a miraculous catch to score the Patriots final touchdown and put the game out of reach.

Looking ahead:

Shocking news came through following the Broncos victory over the Bills in Denver on Saturday as notification came through that starting quarterback Bo Nix had broken his ankle on one of the final plays of the game, forcing him out for the remainder of the postseason. A huge blow to the Broncos who have been excellent all season and Nix has come up clutch on several occasions late in games to pull out victories. Sean Payton is now forced to turn to backup QB, former 2019 4th round pick of the Patriots, Jarret Stidham to lead the Broncos this coming Sunday.

Offense:

Stidham, who has voiced his confidence in the media early this week, will take over the Broncos offense which has been unique in terms of production all year. Many games the Broncos don’t seem to generate much in the first 3 quarters, but garner some 4th quarter magic in clutch moments to come out victorious. Without the key component to those 4th quarter comebacks in Nix, I expect Sean Payton to simplify the playbook, establish a run game and alleviate pressure on his backup. Stidham, who hasn’t thrown an NFL pass since the 2023 season, was Payton’s first signing ahead of that 2023 season, and Payton has confidence in his backup QB to lead them to victory, but they will have their hands full with the Pats defense. Look for a good matchup between Christian Gonzalez and Courtland Sutton. Sutton a veteran wide receiver has three 1,000+ yard receiving seasons including 2025. He’s the most trusted receiver amongst the Broncos young group, but Gonzo has been near impossible to pass against successfully so far this postseason. Rookie RB RJ Harvey is likely to see the bulk of the carries, while Jaleel McLaughlin will also work in tandem in the Broncos backfield. There is a chance the Broncos could activate RB1 J.K. Dobbins who has been out the second half of the season with a foot injury, but seems unlikely he’d go from IR back into a starting role at this point in the season. If the Broncos offense is to be successful Payton’s coaching prowess will be on full display. Stidham will have to be efficient, limit turnovers and manage the game, and let the Broncos defense do the heavy lifting keeping the Pats off the board.

The Patriots offense out ranks their opponent in every major offensive category this season including points per game, total yards per game, passing and rushing yards per game and giveaways. With that being said the Patriots offense hasn’t quite looked themselves yet in these playoffs against what will be the 3rd stellar defense they see. Drake Maye has had limited time to throw and has fumbled 6 times in the last two games. The offensive line has struggled against top pass rushing tandems from the Chargers and the Texans, and will not have an easy time with a Broncos defense that ranks top 5 in yards per game, yards per play, touchdowns allowed and point allowed per game. Watching last weeks Bills vs. Broncos game, the Bills had success on the ground as James Cook ran for 117 yards while Josh Allen added 66 rush yards. Expect the Patriots to try and have the same success between Rhamondre Stevenson, who has had more success so far, Tre’Veyon Henderson and even Drake Maye. The Patriots will need to free up Henderson’s big play ability a little more, and get Maye out of the pocket more often as he simply has struggled to stay protected by the O-line. Patrick Surtain II, the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year will cause problems and likely lock down a Patriots WR all game, I expect Hunter Henry to be a greater factor in the passing game for short yardage throws to get the ball out of Maye’s hands quicker. The Patriots, and Maye specifically must do a better job protecting the football. Providing help to a backup quarterback via turnover field position is taking away the advantage the Pats have. If the Patriots can manage having every drive end in a kick, whether it be for points or a punt, they will be successful.

Defense:

As mentioned above the Broncos defense is stellar, and very comparable to what the Patriots faced on Sunday against the Texans. Expect high pressure from Nik Bonitto who had 14 sacks this season along with fellow LB Jonathan Cooper who added 8 of his own. Alex Singleton and Talanoa Huffanga will appear to be everywhere on the field as ball hawks leading the team in tackles this season. This defense isn’t filled with notable names outside of Bonitto and Surtain, but incredibly effective. The Bills were able to put up 30 points last week, so I’d expect the Patriots to attempt to replicate a similar strategy to garner success. The Broncos don’t cause a lot of turnovers with just 14 this season which ranks in the lower half of the league, odd for a team that is so successful defensively as a unit. If the Broncos win this game I’d expect the Broncos defense to have a touchdown and a couple turnovers, creating advantageous field position to Sitdham and the Bronco’s offense.

The Patriots defense has been the true key to victory this year. A unit that might’ve been disrespected and overlooked by many analysts and experts prior to this postseason and it has created a sizable chip on the shoulder of this unit who has performed incredibly well so far. The Chargers had a weakness on their offensive front that the Patriots exposed. The Texans had a weakness in their running game that the Patriots exposed, which then lead to the pressure on C.J. Stroud to take over the game, something he was clearly unable to do. The Broncos weakness is presumably the QB position with Bo Nix being out and Jarret Stidham in his place. I would expect Zak Kuhr to expose that weakness as well. The Broncos have a strong O-line, but if the Patriots secondary can cause Stidham to hold on to the ball and allow the pass rush to get home, I expect the Patriots defense to dominate once again.

Special Teams:

Will Lutz is a solid kicker making 87.5% of his field goals this season, a total of 28 FGM. Borregales has been excellent for the Patriots so far this post season, no significant advantage to either team. Marcus Jones always creates and advantage in the punt return game but the Broncos are also top 5 in average punt return yardage, and Marvin Mims is a dynamic athlete in the return game.

Overall:

I expect the Drake Maye to play significantly better in this game, reestablishing himself as a premier quarterback. His protection has struggled and his timing has been off, but I would like to believe Josh McDaniel and Maye are sitting down to strategize and efficient, and effective way to get Maye moving and the ball out of his hands faster. If the running game can have a positive impact on early downs, short yardage situations favor the Patriots significantly. As for the defense, finding a way to pressure Stidham, especially early in the game will be crucial. Don’t allow him to get or feel comfortable dropping back in the pocket, and expose his lack of recent playing experience. Another tough test against yet another tough defense with a trip to Superbowl LX on the line! Let’s go Pats!